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占い師三人居れば二人人外なのでそれなりに悪い手ではないと思うけど、真偽なそこまで自信があるわけじゃないなら無理してまで初手からローラーでもないかな…って感じかな。
まあ、村がそれを了承するかはさておき。
占霊3-1で初手から占い師ローラーしようぜと主張したことあったな。結果だけ書くと真占い師が初回処刑で狂人襲撃。
初手ローラー開始も主張としてアリだとは思うが。やはり状況次第かな。
僕は狼が全くわからないので占い師大事にしたいです。
占い師の真偽もわからないので占い師やりたいです。騙るとずっと偽だと言われます。偽ですから。トンガリ先生の魔法の言葉は僕には難し過ぎるわ
>>5682 ABさんは、真の方が信用取れる事が多いって言ってたからどうなんだろ。
最悪は真吊りの狼吊りの狂人残しとも言ってたと思うけど
ABCDE理論は別に占い師から吊ったら真だったのでこの戦術は間違いだって話では別にないのだよな…。
そういえば、ちょっと要望があったの思い出しました。
入村する時のキャラ選択にランダムって入れられないでしょうか?
霧雨のようなキャラ数が多いセットだと、どうキャラを選ぼうか…となるのでそういう時にあると便利なのですが、どうでしょう。
>>5673補足。
3-1は黒を全部信用して吊ると狼1名を吊る間に村人を2名吊ることになる。全視点の狼がでると狼2名を吊る間に村人を4名吊るということ。
G16狼の原則勝利条件は
「狂人を除いて村人を4名処刑すること」
ここでいう村人は狩人や占い師も含まれます。
つまり黒判定を全部鵜呑みにしていくと最後に残るのは最終日に「占占占」が残った確定パワープレイにしかならない。これが示すところは、占い機能*3から黒判定が出て、それを鵜呑みにして吊れば吊るほど、村が負けに近づくわけです。
もちろん道中に真偽確定はするでしょう。それは問題ではなく、占い師3名からでた黒を吊ることが、どの程度有意義かという指標の話です。黒吊一手の価値ともいえるし期待値とも言えます。
結論は結局、上記観点からしても、黒吊ると損なので占い師を吊ったほうがよい、という>>5673のものに到達します。
占占占ロラスタートの最終日灰4とする
灰灰灰狼の時は実質25%も狼吊れないと思う。
展開的に確定霊能者や確定白が残ったとする。
白灰灰狼の時は33%で吊れそうな気もする。
占狂狼の時に1人決め打ちすると確率は33%
多く判定を見ていきなるべく被黒を吊っていったとしたら1人偽打ちして真追い進行して決め打ちの制度も上がるし途中で占い師襲撃挟んで縄浮くかもしれないとかこんなふうに最近考えるようになったわけですが、
ABさんのルートだと最終日灰4パターンが怖くねえっすか?道中は計算しておりませんが
>>5673僕は占い吊り反対ですね。
黒ロラ可能、占ロラ可能って事は3手〜4手判定が見れることになるわけですよね。3手分の判定見て真決め打ちしたいです。
最終日
黒黒灰灰になったとしたら偽黒打たれた人はもう1人の黒に票が入れれるだけで期待値高い気がするんですが。
草案書いてるだけなんであんま考えてないっすけど
>>5717なるほど。最終日とは別で道中にPPを防いだり吊りGJ期待値を上げて行くから、最終日構成は別の話で初手占い師吊りが有効だと言う話ですね。
でもやっぱ初手33%で真吊っちゃってたらお通夜な気がするんですけどそういう時は偽黒吊らずに済んだ&騙り殲滅出来たことで取り戻すって感じなのでしょうか。
あの時のヌァヴェルは村に救われました…ありがとうございます。
今は初手灰吊が常識として、悪夢のようにまかり通っていますが、まずここを根治したいと常々思っているのですけどね。
そのうえで、推理したり、駆け引きしたり、演技したり、誘導したり、誰かを信じたり、そういうの楽しめばいいじゃないですか。言葉で楽しむゲームなんですからね。
3-1で初日灰吊希望したものが「はぁ?バカじゃないの。気が狂ってるわー、そういう珍教徒がいることも知ってるけど、灰吊なんて狼利にしかならない」と滅茶苦茶に批判されて黒要素と取られるぐらいの常識の流れが、早くできないかなあ。
宝くじは期待値的には購入してもマイナスなのだが、
宝くじを買う層が例外なく期待値的にマイナスであることを知らないというわけではないので…。
占い師を吊らない代わりに占い先を統一して確定白が出来るようにしましょう、というのがリスクヘッジになっているような気がするのだけれども。
その理論で無視されているマンパワーの存在を信じてる/信じたい人に受け入れられることはないのではなかろうかという素朴な印象を受けました。
どうでもいいですが、先日やたらと「素朴な印象」という言葉を言う方に遭遇しました。
それを言えば特別な意図は何もない一般的なごく普通の意見に聞こえるとでも思っているのか…
私はその方はとても韓国が嫌いなんだなという素朴な印象を受けました。
ABCDEさんが狼引いて陣形が3-1になった村で、初手からの占いロラ方針が出たとしたらどう対応するかは聞いてみたいかなあ。
戦術論は村の中で展開するものだと思っていた。狼探しの必要ない雑談村で戦術論を話すのも楽しいね。
F国参加当時はフルオープンが最多派ではなく霊能者COで占い師潜伏とか、逆に占い師先行COで霊能者潜伏策とかあったね。今ではフルオープンに淘汰されちゃったみたいだけど。
新着発言はありません。RELOAD最終取得時刻 --:--:--
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